24.4.19

The costs of crime

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   


The Scandinavian Journal of Economics has published a work of mine in which I evaluate the costs of the crime. They are huge. 


I have analyzed  a sample of 94 countries for the year 2005, the value of the indexof business costs of crime relative to the United States ranks from 0.70(Iceland) to 4.79 (Venezuela); its average is 1.40, the standard deviation is 0.78, the average of the first decile is 0.73, and the average of the lastdecile is 3.21. 

According to my estimations: 

1) In the United States, US GDP per worker is 82.5 percent of the GDP per worker in the economy without predation, and US consumption per worker is 81.4 percent. Therefore, according to the model, the US welfare costs of crime represent a loss of 18.6 percent of consumption per worker and GDP per worker is reduced by 17.5 percent.

2) For a country in the average of the sample (i.e., with the value of the index at 1.40) predation reduces consumption per worker and GDP per worker by 25.1 and 23.8 percent, respectively. For a country in the average value of the last decile, consumption per worker and GDP worker are reduced by 57.8 percent and 55.9 percent, respectively

3) In the United States,78.6 percent of the reduction in long-run consumption per worker caused by an increase in predation is due to waste of resources, while 21.4 percent are deadweight losses. For a country in the sample average of the distribution of the index of business costs of crime, these percentages are 75.5 and 24.5 percent. However, for a country in the average of the last decile, these percentages are reversed as 21.5 and 78.5 percent.


I built a quality index of formal institutions securing property rights in each country using the following variables: judicial independence, impartial courts, protection of property rights, military interference in the rule of law and political process, integrity of the legal system, legal enforcement of contracts, regulatory restrictions on the sale of real property, and reliability of the police. The arithmetic average of these eight variables is calculated. 

The resulting index relative to the United States is used as a proxy of quality of formal institutions securing property rights in each country. It ranks from 1.18 (Finland) to 0.37 (Burundi); its average is 0.81, the standard deviation is 0.21, the average of the first decile is 1.15, and the average of the last decile is 0.47.

The results of my simulations show that improving the quality of formal institutions securing property rights can have a large positive impact on the productivity of countries at the bottom of the distribution. 

Therefore, the improvement of the quality of formal institutions securing propertyrights could be a successful development policy strongly enhancing productivity by reducing predatory activities. 

In particular: 

4) If the institutional quality index increases by one standard deviation, then, for a country with a value of the index equal to the average value of the last decile of its distribution, the ratio of business costs of predation to GDP decreases by 36 percent, while its GDP per worker increases by 23 percent TFP increases by 12 percent and the ratio of capital to GDP increases by 6 percent 

5) Therefore, most of the increase in GDP per worker is due to the increaseof TFP, not to the increase in the ratio of capital to GDP.



28.2.19

O devalar terrorista.


O terrorismo ten sido empregado polos governos de todo o mundo como escusa para limitar as liberdades dos cidadans. Os medios de comunicación destacan as novas que teñen que ver co terrorismo e a análise dos dados non parece xustificar tanta atención nin tanto recorte de liberdades. Ven de publicarse o Índice Global de Terrorismo con dados até o ano 2017 nel se pode comprobar a redución das mortes e ataques terroristas no mundo. Na Europa occidental de 216 mortes por terrorismo en 2016 pasouse a 81 mortes en 2017. Entre xaneiro e outubro de 2018 as mortes non chegaron a 10. 

14.1.19

Respetad nuestras libertades o nos vamos.

Mujeres saudís yendo a un partido de fútbol.

Rahaf Mohammed al-Qunun es el nombre de la chica saudí que huyó de su país con la intención de llegar a Australia para pedir asilo y que fue retenida en Tailandia hasta que el gobierno canadiense le concedió asilo. Su caso a tenido tal repercusión en Arabia Saudí que ha generado un movimiento entre las mujeres que amenazan con irse del país si no se respetan sus libertades. 

28.11.18

Geografía de la felicidad.


Fuente: "The Geography of Development" Klaus Desmet, Dávid Krisztián Nagy y Esteban Rossi-Hansberg.
En un reciente trabajo publicado en el Journal of Political Economy se recopilan datos sobre la felicidad para distintos países. El bienestar subjetivo se mide en una escala de autoevaluación diseñada por Hadley Cantril de 0 a 10, donde 0 representa la peor vida posible y 10 la mejor vida posible que el individuo puede contemplar por sí mismo. La principal fuente de datos que utilizan es la Encuesta Mundial de Gallup. En la imagen se representa la media para el período 2007–11 según se recoge en el Informe sobre Desarrollo Humano 2013. Para aumentar el número de países los autores utilizan también la Base de Datos Mundial de la Felicidad 2013 elaborada por Ruut Veenhoven en la Erasmus University of Rotterdam (http://worlddatabaseofhappiness.eur.nl).

La relación entre la medida de felicidad y la prosperidad salta a la vista, pero también hay alguna sorpresa, ¿por qué es tan feliz latinoamérica?